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One of our more common fibs is the phrase "I don't like to say I told you so".
Everybody loves to say it, which is why the phrase inevitably is followed by "but".
So let me say "I told you so" on one issue and lay the groundwork to say it again soon on another.
In June I suggested the most interesting thing about the opinions of a visiting IMF official was that it provided an insight into what Treasury and the Reserve Bank really think but might not be ready to say.
The IMF bloke made headlines by suggesting Australia's "normal" growth rate might be downgraded to something closer to what is normal for other developed economies.
Hey presto, within a week, the immediate past-secretary of the Treasury was saying something similar and this week RBA governor Glenn Stevens chimed in. My guess is that the definition of "trend" growth has been quietly occupying RBA and Treasury minds for some time.
That shouldn't surprise when we are in the seventh year out of eight that's recording sub-trend growth by the old definition. The budget promised a return to trend growth next financial year, but we all know budget promises should be taken with a grain of salt.
And beyond that, the budget's technical assumptions deliver a fairy tale of exactly the right level of growth that will allow all of us to live happily ever after.
No, really – that's what the budget says. As explained in Budget Paper No. 2, the assumptions that result in the 3.5 per cent GDP growth rate Joe Hockey says will take us back to Magic Surplus Land are that we will simply have the perfect amount of growth to absorb excess capacity.
As Stevens discussed on Wednesday, there could be and probably are several forces at work that are redefining what we think is normal about our economy. And as colleague Mal Maiden explained, accepting a lower number as "trend" has major ramifications for everything from returns on retirement savings to what federal treasurers chant.
It will take more than fairy story assumptions to deliver the promised budget happy ending.
Meanwhile, getting in ahead of the "told you so" curve, how about this week's palpitations over APRA demanding our big banks accumulate a bit more capital to back up their housing loans to protect the financial system from the possibility of unfortunate lending somewhere down the track?
OK, the "bit" is measured in many billions of dollars, but it's still a small fraction of the overall game.
You could be forgiven for thinking from some headlines that interest rates were going to soar, deposit rates were about to go negative and bank shareholders would never see a dividend again.
The reality is that it's highly likely no-one will even notice by the time the impact of the change is spread around the system.
Australian bank shareholders have proven to be very willing to provide capital on request, so raising it is not a problem. With solid growth still the order of the day, there's room to absorb the smallish dilution without reducing dividends – a few extra cents won't be delivered that most punters won't miss.
And as for higher home loan rates, any fiddling of the published headline rate would be a dangerous thing thanks to existing competitive forces. Yes, the smaller banks and non-bank lenders would capitalise.
More likely is some trimming of the discounts offered. And the size of existing discounts is something the banks prefer to keep quiet about anyway. Again, most folk won't know.
As for the talked-up possibility of a real interest rate move, just remember that we end up paying, on average, about what the Reserve Bank wants us to pay. That's what monetary policy targets – actual rates paid, with the official cash rate movements just a mechanism to get there.
We've actually had an extra defacto rate cut over the past year or so courtesy of the banks chasing home loan customers. That has been factored in by the RBA when it's moved or not moved the cash rate.
The well-telegraphed changes are likely to be an unnoticed part of the furniture soon enough, so much so that there will barely be a chance to say I told you so.
So I'll work an extra one in while I have the chance: Hey gold bugs, I told you so.
