Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe will get the opportunity to provide an update on the economic outlook after the central bank's board meeting on Tuesday, but there is no reason to expect any policy changes.
There has been little data since the board met a month ago to alter the RBA's expectation that the cash rate won't be raised from a record low 0.1 per cent before 2024.
In the words of AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver, the meeting "is likely to be pretty boring".
The most recent jobs figures showed a steep loss in employment due to the COVID-19 lockdowns in NSW, Victoria and ACT, while retail spending has now tumbled for three months in a row, a key component of economic growth.
Dr Lowe has already estimated the impact of having half the nation's population in lockdown will see the economy contract by at least two per cent in the September quarter and the jobless rate hit the "high fives" in the coming months.
However, the news on vaccination rates has been extremely positive and states have announced their path ways out of lockdown when double-dose jabs reach 70 and 80 per cent.
It suggests the economic recovery will resume in the December quarter.
Economists will be looking for any clues in Dr Lowe's post-meeting statement as to when curbs on home lending may be introduced to take some of the heat out of Australia's housing market.
The Council of Financial Regulators, of which the RBA is a member, warned last week that while lending standards have not dropped so far, they are considering policies to curb activity before debt-laden households become a risk to the economy.
On the data front, ANZ will release its latest monthly job advertisements report on Tuesday, a pointer to future employment growth.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will also release it weekly payroll jobs data for the period to September 11 on Thursday, a series that is already pointing a further substantial drop in employment in the labour force report due later this month.
Separately, the ABS will release international trade figures for August on Tuesday.
Economists are forecasting a smaller $10 billion trade surplus, narrowing from the record $12.1 billion in July.
This is likely to reflect the impact of a large 25 per cent fall in the iron ore price.
Meanwhile, Australian shares should get off to a positive start to the week, although trading will likely be light with holidays in NSW, South Australia and the ACT for Labour Day and Queensland off for the Queen's Birthday.
Australian share futures were 52 points, or 0.73 per cent, higher at 7180.
The firm tone was sparked by investors entering the final quarter of the year in a buying mood on Wall Street, boosted by progress in battling the coronavirus and news that US President Joe Biden was getting more involved in negotiations over the infrastructure spending bill.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 482.54 points, or 1.43 per cent, to 34,326.46, the S&P 500 gained 49.5 points, or 1.15 per cent, to 4,357.04 and the Nasdaq Composite added 118.12 points, or 0.82 per cent, to 14,566.70.
On Friday, the Australian benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed lower by 146.7 points, or two per cent, to 7185.5, finishing off a fourth week of declines.
Australian Associated Press
