New data from the Real Estate Institute of NSW reveals the suburbs most at risk of property-market collapse under a federal Labor government are "overwhelmingly" Labor seats.
Liverpool is first and Fairfield is ninth on the list of 50 suburbs where the property market is expected to suffer significant extra falls in value under federal Labor's policies of ending negative gearing and changing capital-gains tax.
The institute has released an analysis of the 50 property markets across Sydney most vulnerable to Labor's policies of reducing the number of investors in the market; 41 out of the 50 property markets are in Labor electorates.
"The data identifies those suburbs with a high proportion of rental properties and which have already suffered double-digit falls in property values," REI's TimMcKibbin said. "On this basis, new policies that cause investors to exit will reduce the number of buyers in the market further.
"This will escalate the losses in value even further. We found the overwhelming majority of seats are held by Labor."
Top of the list is Liverpool in the Labor seat of Fowler, held by ChrisHayes. Over the past 12 months, median house values in Liverpool (where 52.2 per cent of property is rented) have fallen 25.3 per cent, according to the CoreLogic data. The median value of a house in Liverpool is now $643,526. Other Labor seats affected include Werriwa held by AnneStanley.
Mr Hayes responded: "I'm not sure the institute should be considered as objective bystanders. They've been silent on the fact the biggest housing fall has been under the current Liberal Government. Labor is reforming negative gearing to put young first-home buyers on a more level playing field with property investors.
"The savings from this will go to improving our schools, hospitals, as well as helping young working parents with childcare.
"A more objective assessment might be found in the NSW Treasury modelling which shows Labor's changes would have a negligible effect on housing. We're trying to make it easier for young people to own their home."
The data shows Airds in Macarthur has the highest number of rental properties with 92.7 per cent rented. Third is WarwickFarm with 67.7 per cent rented.
Of the 50 suburbs, 44 had property-value losses greater than 10 per cent and 11 had property-value losses greater than 15 per cent. "These property markets have already suffered significantly under the property downturn," Mr McKibbin said. "Any policy that reduces buyer activity further will undermine prices further."
15/05/19: REINSW graphic "Hayes" spelling corrected