ANALYSIS
How long could it take for gay marriage to become legal in Australia?
Leave aside for a moment the fact that Prime Minister Tony Abbott is personally opposed to the idea.
Mr Abbott has avoided discussing the merits of the multi-party private member's bill, which will not be tabled until August, when Parliament returns. Instead, he has said that his priority and the government's focus is on making laws for national security and economic management.
This implies that the latest gay marriage bill, while potentially a good one, would take too much of Parliament's time away from these two areas.
So how much time would it take for the bill to be brought to the floor, voted on and passed in both houses?
If the Prime Minister allowed Coalition members a free vote on the bill, this would increase its chances of success. It would also make it politically easier for Liberal supporters of gay marriage, who are currently silent, to vote for it.
The House selection committee - made up of mostly Coalition MPs - has the power to decide when the bill gets to the floor, and therefore if it happens at all.
But as we've already mentioned, the Prime Minister is personally opposed to gay marriage.
While he has distanced himself from the next steps to it becoming law, his public comments make it plain to the committee that he does not want the bill listed on the agenda.
Let's say, for argument's sake, that a date is set. The day arrives. More members than usual would want to speak. But even if every member of the House of Representatives – all 150 of them – wanted to, each one has only 20 minutes maximum to speak. This would take about 50 hours, out of 19 sitting weeks in a year.
A government supporter of the bill said that time was just one of a "smorgasboard of obstacles" Mr Abbott is laying out to ensure gay marriage does not become legal.
"Parliamentary processes should not be abused in a manner which is akin to litigation games. They are designed to ensure transparency and open debate, which is the hallmark of any democracy," he said.
Labor MP Laurie Ferguson said creating laws for gay marriage and national security or the economy were not mutually exclusive: "It's not the end of Western civilisation to find time to debate this bill."
"[Mr Abbott's] best outcome is to delay for a few years … because it's going to happen."
Liberal MPs who will put their names to the bill, Teresa Gambaro and Warren Entsch, declined to comment.
According to Mr Abbott, it is unlikely to come to this anyway. Private member's bills, he says, are not typically debated. He cannot remember more than a few that have been. In other words: the bill is likely to go untouched.
Nine private member's bills have become law since Mr Abbott was elected to Parliament in March 1994.
It is believed that the current gay marriage bill is more comprehensive and less laden with political swipes than previous failed attempts. Mr Abbott himself has acknowledged that gay marriage is, while not a priority, "important" with many Australians holding different views on its future.
So instead of asking how long it will take for gay marriage to become legal, perhaps it is better to ask: what are the chances the Prime Minister will change his mind to allow a free vote on the bill?
