Australia's biosecurity is at risk from what the CSIRO has called "the efficiency era", which could hit the country's ability to protect itself from external threats such as highly contagious human diseases and agricultural pests.
In a comprehensive report released on Tuesday, "the efficiency era" is one of five "biosecurity megatrends" identified as having the potential to compromise the country's economy, health and environment in coming decades.
Of primary concern is that Australia could be left under-resourced to respond to outbreaks, according to the Australia's Biosecurity Future report.
This includes lacking the scientific expertise, infrastructure or financial resources for the country's researchers to develop vaccines, drugs and surveillance technologies to prevent and respond to emerging infectious diseases.
The report notes the number of scientists working in weed bio-control has shrunk from 33 in the 1980s and 1990s to seven to eight now.
Science director of CSIRO's biosecurity flagship Gary Fitt said being able to replace an ageing workforce of experts working in human health, plant and animal industries and the environment was vital.
Among the known global threats are bird flu, the severe respiratory disease MERS which has killed 346 people in Saudi Arabia and the arrival in Australia of the varroa mite which could severely hit European honey bee populations, costing the agricultural sector up to $6 billion in lost pollination. Dr Fitt said avocado and almond growers would be among the worst hit but warned other fruit and vegetable growers would not be immune if the mite arrived in Australia.
The arrival in the Northern Territory of the Cucumber Green Mottle Mosaic virus this month had scientists scrambling to contain the virus, which has stopped growers around Katherine from distributing their crops.
"There are significant costs associated with these biosecurity threats," Dr Fitt said.
He pointed to the 2001 foot and mouth outbreak in the UK which left a US$25-30 billion dent in the economy and the 2002-2003 SARS epidemic, which is estimated to have had an economic cost of up to $50 billion.
However the director of CSIRO futures James Deverell said often it was the unknown threats which posed the greatest risk to the Australia's biosecurity.
"The recent ebola outbreak ... is an example of something that literally came out of the blue," he said.
Dr Fitt said it was better to prevent biosecurity threats occurring than to have to respond after they had taken hold.
"Investment in biosecurity is ongoing and important," he said. "If we take the best science and implement it, we'd expect not to see major crises. But that shouldn't be seen as a reason not to invest in a system that appears to be having no crises. It's a bit of a conundrum."
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation has highlighted the importance of food security, in forecasts signalling global food production will need to increase by 60 per cent on 2005-2007 levels in order to meet demand in 2050.
"Because Australia is free of many of the significant global pests and diseases, it means we are able to trade more easily than some other countries," he said. "And we need to keep that advantage so as to play a significant role in the growing demand for food, particularly from Asia."
